This post centers on a thought I’ve had for a while now, that mobile gaming could be the future of all gaming. I’ve really been impressed with the adoption rate of mobile gaming over the last few years, it’s one of the reasons F5 is focused on mobile games, but a few things have happened even in just the last month that, I believe, could show us how the future of gaming could play out.
Smartphone Gaming vs Dedicated Portable Gaming
Smartphone gaming has really taken off with the iPhone, and to a lesser extent Android, over the last couple years. This redirection of gamers time into smartphone gaming has been especially troubling for Nintendo and Sony as the more time people spend gaming on their phone the less time they spend using a DS or PSP.
That is one of the reasons we’re only a month away from a US launch of Nintendo’s new 3DS and why Sony recently announced their NGP, or PSP 2. Both of these gaming devices have advanced technology and features that Nintendo and Sony hope will convince gamers that they need to carry an extra device with them to satisfy their gaming needs. While I’m excited to see what both of these devices can do I’m starting to feel like the days of dedicated gaming handhelds are numbered, and I’m not alone.
Recently John Carmack, the father of the First Person Shooter, was asked about the impact of phone gaming on the overall market and he had this to say:
“The smart phone may turn out to be 80 percent as good at gaming as a dedicated gaming platform,” Carmack said.
“People are going to carry their smart phone, and if it’s an 80 percent gaming device, how many people in the gaming market will be satisfied with that? That’s the question that’s in everybody’s mind, and I really don’t know.” – Dallas News
Obviously, I don’t know either, but I think that as smartphone adoption continues to grow you’re going to see more and more people who were never interested in purchasing a DS or PSP become interested in gaming on their phone. For them an 80% gaming device is more than good enough and they’re going to be incredibly satisfied with that. So the question isn’t ‘how many people in the gaming market will want that’ it’s ‘how much larger is that 80% gaming market than the current one’. As a game developer, that means smartphone gaming could represent a massively larger market that is growing at an incredible rate and is going to have a wider range of players to create games for.
The other advantage that smartphones have over gaming portables is their lifecycle. Apple has basically put the industry on a 12 month product refresh cycle by continually updating the iPhone year after year. That means that every 12 months we’re seeing a pretty dramatic increase in the processing power and graphical capabilities of these phones and the cost stays steady at about $200 on contract. In fact it’s rumored that the jaw dropping chips that are powering the NGP are very similar to the chips that will ship in the iPhone 5 and iPad 2, 6 months before Sony ships the NGP. Developers, including Carmack, have said that even if the chips were exactly the same a dedicated gaming machine will have better performance because of the low-level tuning that can take place, but in the long run that doesn’t matter if smartphone hardware gets faster every 12 months.
The PSP was released in America on March 24, 2005 and it’s successor, the NGP, won’t be available in the US until most likely 2012; that’s almost a 7 year lifecycle. At the current rate of enhancement the mobile phones of 2013 will be more powerful than the NGP and will be able to play more graphically impressive games probably on 3D screens exactly like that of the Nintendo 3DS. There is just no way that the traditional style gaming handheld can compete with the run-away growth in smartphone processing power.
If these trends continue, I don’t see how it makes sense to bring another dedicated gaming handheld to market. I fully expect the 3DS and NGP to be the last generation of dedicated gaming handhelds, and that all mobile gaming will be replaced by phones over the next few years.
Sony’s Response
A few weeks ago when Sony announced the NGP they also announced the Playstation Suite, a software platform and gaming store for mobile phones. At first I was interested in the Playstation Suite because it could be a better way to sell games on Android, and a way to get our games onto the NGP in the future. After some more thought, however, I’m beginning to think it may be one of the smartest moves Sony has ever made in mobile gaming. They are basically betting on two horses; if I’m wrong and there is still a large market for a dedicated gaming portable then they have the NGP; but if I’m right and phones will overtake the NGP and 3DS in the next couple years then they have the Playstation Suite. They can divert resources over to developing for their ‘certified’ Playstation phones and have a foothold in the new, and much much larger, phone gaming market. It’s a brilliant strategy, and after the Xperia Play announcements at MWC this week it seems to be something they are taking very seriously.
While Sony seems well positioned to make the jump out of the dedicated handheld gaming space if the need arises, I’m not so sure about Nintendo. I haven’t seen anything from them that suggests they are interested in moving their operations to mobile phones, and honestly I don’t see how they would do it. They are an incredibly proud company, and I can’t see them just deciding to develop games for the iPhone or Android. It’s possible that they could continue to sell handhelds to younger players but the phone market is so much larger and more diverse that I can’t imagine them ignoring it. Perhaps they they will make a Nintendo phone? I’m sure they could find another Japanese phone manufacturer that would like a way to counter Sony in their gaming push.
Conclusions
So, we’ve covered the reasons smartphone gaming will replace dedicated gaming handhelds. The markets are much bigger, people don’t want to carry multiple devices, and phone hardware is increasing at such astonishing rates that a 5-7 year product lifecycle isn’t competitive. But, the title of this post wasn’t just about currently mobile games it was about all games, including home consoles. I also believe that we could be only a few years away from a huge shake-up in the home console space as smartphone gaming begins to intrude on their turf in many of the same ways that they are killing the dedicated gaming portable.
However, this post is already long enough, so you’re going to have to wait until part 2 to hear the rest of the argument. Let me know what you think in the comments and look for the second part of this post on Friday.














